How We Rank
Our approach to ranking IESA wrestlers, from the first prospects list through the final state rankings.
The Short Version
We collect as much public match data as we can from tournaments and coaches who submit results directly. We run it through a proprietary algorithm that evaluates records, opponents, common opponents, head-to-head results, win/loss methods, and tournament size and quality. Then we do a human review and make adjustments where the data is incomplete or misleading. We rank from 95lb to 275lb across both Class AA and Class A.
That's the quick version. But ranking middle school wrestlers is messier than it sounds, and the details matter. Keep reading for the full breakdown.
Before We Go Further
We do this because we love wrestling and we love covering it. These rankings are meant to be fun. They're meant to spark conversation, give wrestlers and families something to follow, and shine a light on kids who are putting in the work.
That said, we're human. We make mistakes. Sometimes we're missing data, sometimes we weigh something wrong, and sometimes a wrestler just isn't on our radar yet. If your kid isn't ranked where you think they should be, or isn't ranked at all, it's not a slight. It almost always comes down to what data we have (or don't have) at that point in the season.
Think of rankings like a resume. They reflect what a wrestler has done so far this season. They don't predict what's going to happen next. Upsets happen every single day in wrestling, at every level. That's part of what makes the sport so great.
Our rankings change often, and they should. As new results come in, the picture shifts. A wrestler ranked 8th today could be ranked 2nd next week if they put together a strong showing. That's the whole point.
Where the Data Comes From
Our primary data source is public varsity-level tournament results (we don't use JV events). The most active IESA schools might compete in 4 or 5 tournaments a year. We're lucky to see most schools at even 2. And roughly a third of all IESA schools don't participate in any tournaments at all until regionals. That's a huge blind spot, and it's just the reality of IESA wrestling.
Here's our biggest blind spot: duals. We rarely have dual meet results. This is where the most frustration comes from. “My kid pinned that wrestler at our dual.” “He beat that guy twice in duals this season.” We hear you. But unless a coach submits those results to us directly, we simply don't have them.
This is usually the biggest gap between what you know and what we know. Now multiply that across 7,000+ IESA wrestlers every season, and you can start to see how we might miss some things. It's not that we don't care. It's that we can't rank what we can't see.
If a wrestler hasn't appeared in any tournament results and their coach hasn't reached out, they won't show up in our rankings until after regionals. Coaches, if you want your wrestlers on our radar, reach out. We want to hear from you.
Why We Start at 95 Pounds
We only rank from 95lb to 275lb. Two reasons.
First, this is a ton of work. Each weight class takes real time and effort to research, cross-reference data, and get right. We'd love to cover every weight class, but there are only so many hours in the day.
Second, and more importantly, these are the weight classes that translate directly to high school varsity spots. The lowest high school varsity weight is 106lb, and we consistently see 95lb and 100lb state placers grab those 106lb varsity spots once they get to high school. So these rankings give you a real preview of the kids who'll be competing for roster spots down the road.
The Ranking Timeline
Our rankings aren't a static list. They change in purpose and precision as the season unfolds, because the amount of data we have changes dramatically from month to month. Here's how that plays out.
Prospects List
We look at last year's state qualifiers and placers who we know are still in middle school this year. If a wrestler made state last year and we had their grade listed as 7th or below, they go on the prospects list. Beyond that, if a coach or credible source points us to a wrestler with results worth watching, they'll get added too.
Early tournaments like Midwest Nationals Preseason and Beat the Streets Preseason help inform this list. But we don't always know a wrestler's grade, their current school, or if they're even wrestling IESA this year. When we're missing that info, they won't make the prospects list. Coaches reaching out early makes a big difference here.
Season Starts & Prospect Updates
Coaches and fans start reaching out with wrestlers we should be watching. We welcome it, but we need to see evidence before adding someone to the list. Tournament results, placements, competitive matches against known opponents. We don't assign weight classes yet either. Too much changes between now and the state series.
This is how we learn about state qualifiers missing from our list (usually because we didn't have their grade) and solid IKWF wrestlers making the switch to IESA this year. We appreciate every tip, but wrestlers and parents tend to be a little biased (understandably), and rankings don't work if everyone is supposed to be ranked. We need something concrete to go on.
First Weight Class Rankings
After several major tournaments wrap up, we have enough data to assign wrestlers to weight classes and produce our first real rankings. At this point, we typically only have visibility into about 25–50% of IESA wrestlers.
Key tournaments include the Homer Tournament, Mason Hada, CCMS Coalers Invitational, Tyler Johnson Memorial, Buehler-Giuliano Memorial, Hawthorn Eaglemania, Geneseo MS Tournament, JMS Crimson Invite, and Olympia MS Invitational. The schools that compete most often naturally show up more in our data, but that bias holds up well since more competition means more battle-testing.
Weekly Tweaks & Refinements
Weekly adjustments as new results roll in. Wrestlers move up, move down, or appear for the first time. No single massive update, just steady refinement as the picture gets clearer each week heading into the state series.
Full Rankings
Regionals is where things get real. We finally get official state series weights, and there's usually a ton of movement. This is also the first time roughly half of all IESA wrestlers appear in any list at all.
Many wrestlers simply hadn't competed in a tracked tournament before this point. Coaches sometimes reach out to let us know which wrestlers deserve a look, what their records are, and who they've beaten. But regionals is our first truly solid data set and our first full view of the field.
Before State Rankings
Sectionals is often the first time wrestlers face opponents from outside their region. This is our first true look at how wrestlers from different parts of the state stack up against each other.
Regular season tournaments tend to be geographically concentrated. Some draw broadly (Johnsburg, for example), but it's just not feasible for Chicagoland teams to regularly wrestle Southern Illinois teams during the season. We also look at IKWF tournament results to help gauge relative strength across regions.
Final Season Rankings
The state tournament decides medal placements. But our final rankings might look slightly different from the podium.
IESA seeding is based solely on sectional placement. 1st at your sectional means you're a #1 seed. That's it. No broader seeding criteria. So the two best wrestlers at a given weight can easily end up on the same side of the bracket, especially if they came from the same sectional. We frequently see the “real” championship match happen in the quarters or semis rather than the finals.
The IKWF Factor
This is something unique to Illinois middle school wrestling. A lot of top kids wrestle both IKWF and IESA during the season. Before regionals, many of them decide to go one route or the other. So we regularly remove a dozen or more wrestlers from our rankings when they commit to the IKWF path. Sometimes wrestlers even compete at the IESA regional and then still go IKWF.
It's disruptive, honestly. But it happens. While those wrestlers absolutely have merit, it's tough to keep them ranked when the IESA state series continues and we can't know how they would have fared if they'd stayed in.
IKWF data isn't all negative though. For wrestlers who rank highly through IESA data alone, we also dig into their IKWF tournament results to get a fuller picture. The top wrestlers typically compete in both throughout the year, so it gives us additional data points to work with.
In the future, we may produce IKWF Senior level rankings (IKWF has divisions starting as young as 4–5 years old, but we'd only rank the Senior division, which is mostly 8th graders and some 7th graders) and even an “all middle school” ranking that brings both together. But right now, that isn't feasible.
Who's In, Who's Out
Once the state series starts, we only rank wrestlers who are still competing. If you get bounced at regionals or sectionals, you come off the rankings on our next update. If a wrestler was ranked 2nd going into sectionals and didn't make it through, they're removed. If someone is having an incredible season and gets injured, same thing.
But still competing doesn't mean you're automatically ranked. At any given class and weight, there might be 100–200 wrestlers going into regionals. After regionals, 48 remain. After sectionals, 16 make state. At every stage, we rank the top 10 plus a handful of honorable mentions. So even if you make it all the way to state, you're not guaranteed a ranking. You're eligible, but you still need to rise to the top 10 of those remaining.
This isn't meant to slight anyone. It's just really difficult to project where a wrestler would land without additional match data, and it gets confusing for wrestlers still in the tournament to see someone who's been eliminated still occupying a ranking spot.
Ultimately, our rankings work as a hybrid. Early in the season, it's about the best resume and body of work. Once the state series begins, it shifts to the best wrestlers among those still competing.
How We Think About Rankings
Records Matter, But They're Not Everything
Some wrestlers have weaker schedules. Some are in regions where wrestling just isn't as deep and they don't have strong programs nearby to test them. We've seen wrestlers go undefeated in the regular season, then get dominated in sectionals. We've seen wrestlers make state (top 16) who probably aren't even in the top 50 statewide, simply because of the sectional they came through.
An undefeated record looks great on paper. But the context behind it matters just as much as the number itself. Similarly, not all tournaments are created equal. Winning a 25-team tournament carries more weight than a 5-team event.
Head-to-Head Results Have an Expiration Date
Head-to-head matchups matter. But if they happened early in the season, they matter less. At this age, wrestlers can make enormous strides in just a few weeks. Maybe they shored up a defensive gap. Maybe they finally nailed their fundamentals. Maybe their conditioning caught up to their skill.
We've seen wrestlers who were average in December become legitimate contenders by March. So while we absolutely consider who beat whom, we weigh recent results more heavily.
Pins Are Common. Tech Falls Impress Us More.
In middle school, pins happen. A lot. Almost anyone can get caught. We've seen genuinely talented kids get pinned by lesser competition because of one mistake. We've also seen great wrestlers face their first judo-trained opponent and get dropped to their back without knowing what hit them.
Good wrestlers who are up by a wide margin can make one small error and the match is over. That happens far more in middle school than in high school, where pins are harder to come by. Because of this, we're honestly more impressed by dominant tech falls than by pins. A tech fall shows sustained, controlled dominance. A pin can sometimes just mean someone made a mistake at the wrong moment.
Styles Make Matchups
Sometimes a certain matchup just poses problems for a wrestler. Maybe all their training partners are one body type, and then they go up against a tall, lanky kid and get caught with a basic cradle. Or they face someone with tremendous lower body strength and get picked up without knowing how to counter that leverage.
Middle school wrestlers are still learning. We regularly see wrestlers who are clearly better overall lose to an opponent who just happens to be a bad stylistic matchup for them. It doesn't mean the rankings are wrong. It means wrestling is complicated.
Injuries, Bad Days, and the Margin for Error
Wrestlers are almost never 100%. Sometimes they're at 95%, sometimes 70%. Everyone has good days and bad days, and if two wrestlers are close enough in skill, the better one can lose a match they'd win 9 out of 10 times on any other day.
Our rankings can't predict these things. All we can go on is a wrestler's record, their notable wins and losses, and most importantly, how they're performing right now.
We Have a Recency Bias. On Purpose.
In wrestling, and especially at this age, recent results are the strongest signal we have for where a wrestler stands right now. We've seen IESA wrestlers qualify and even place at state one year, then fail to get out of sectionals the next. This happens a lot at the lower weights, where kids can make state for the first time as 5th or 6th graders, then get knocked out at sectionals the following year at a higher weight where the competition is stronger and more physical.
So we really focus on “what have you done lately.”
All things being equal, we'll give some extra weight to previous state experience. But if a wrestler who never made state beats a returning state placer twice in a row, the conclusion is clear. That's the better wrestler right now. And “right now” is what our rankings are about.
Check Out the Rankings
See where wrestlers stand across all 13 IESA weight classes for both Class AA and Class A.
View IESA Rankings